Added: Kalisha Czapla - Date: 22.03.2022 19:27 - Views: 10111 - Clicks: 2414
Search for more articles by this author. This article examines how the increase in the incarceration of black men and the sex ratio imbalance it induces shape the behavior of young black women. These can for the sharp bridging of the racial gap over the s for a range of socioeconomic outcomes among females. Over the past three decades, the United States has experienced a dramatic surge in imprisonment, especially in the black community. One in eight black males ages 25—29 was behind bars in In Single Blk Male, imprisonment already represents the modal experience for young black male high school dropouts Pettit and Western The prevalence of black imprisonment is more than 15 times higher for men than for women.
Further, few black women pair with nonblack men. Hence, black women face a momentously unfavorable sex ratio. Of course, incarceration affects nonblack men as well, mostly from low socioeconomic backgrounds. Yet, because of the overlap between race and poverty, because incarceration affects blacks so disproportionately, and because same race-based matching is so prevalent it makes sense to concentrate this investigation on the external effects of black male incarceration. Once quantified, those unintended collateral effects of male incarceration may be factored in when evaluating the costs and benefits of criminal justice policies.
For example, considerations of external effects may be relevant for offenders at the margin between incarceration and probation or parole. Further, it will be useful to determine the responsibility shares of policy programs versus male incarceration in explaining several socioeconomic trends observed among American women, and African American women in particular. The mass confinement of black men is likely to trigger a series of effects. For example, free men receive an increase in bargaining power and some would be able to secure more sexual relations, some of them unprotected, following a mechanism analyzed in Willis Moreover, the sheer magnitude of the male shortage could actually mean fewer sexual relations altogether on the female side.
Therefore, it is conceivable that a growing fraction of young black women would decide to or have to forgo Single Blk Male motherhood.
One would also expect more black women to continue their studies or become financially independent through employment as an Single Blk Male against the decreased odds of finding a suitable mate. A of stylized facts appear to corroborate the above hypotheses. Indeed, the black nonmarital teen pregnancy rate, although higher in absolute terms, has decreased faster than its white counterpart in the last 20 years Martin et al.
Further, black women have been bridging the racial educational gap Allen et al. To examine how the rising levels of incarceration of black men lead young black women to change important lifetime decisions, I compiled data on the of male prisoners by race, gender, state, and year from the Bureau of Justice Statistics BJS.
From there, I constructed male prison rates per adult male population using the U. I then merged Census-adjusted BJS prison statistics with individual-level information on fertility, schooling, employment, and marriage from the June and March supplements of the Current Population Survey CPS, June — [not all inclusive] and March — so that they match on a race, year, and state basis.
When applied to the resulting pooled cross-sectional data set, a fixed-effects linear model permits the disentangling of incarceration from year effects, state effects, and secular trends in socioeconomic changes within states, as well as from other identifiable variables that could possibly affect the outcomes of interest within states over time. The frequency of the CPS waves allows testing the robustness of the using various lags between incarceration and observed outcomes.
It also allows us to focus on states and periods where some identifiable, plausibly exogenous shocks are driving the growth of incarceration. In terms of my main findings, the models show that higher rates of black male incarceration have ificantly lowered the odds of nonmarital teenage motherhood among young black females, with the caveat that the average effect is driven by a small of repressive states. In contrast, I cannot reject the null hypothesis of no effect when testing for the impact of white male incarceration on the same outcomes for white women.
Finally, the evidence in support of a negative effect of black male Single Blk Male on marriage is somewhat weaker.
This work relates to several branches of a literature that spans different disciplines. Social scientists have long been intrigued by the consequences of sex ratio imbalances. For example, one area of research exploits exogenous shocks in sex ratio on female marriage Francis, forthcoming and labor supply Angrist However, male un availability originates from multiple factors imprisonment, mental institutionalization, enrollment in the military, etc.
Each of those factors, in turn, may have a different effect that needs to be separately estimated. The present study is closest to that of Charles and Luohwho estimate Single Blk Male impact of male incarceration on selected female outcomes using Census data. They observe that women overwhelmingly marry slightly older men from the same race and state.
Since the U. Decennial Census tells us who is institutionalized, which can serve as an approximation for incarceration, Charles and Luoh use the last three waves of that data set to match outcomes of women of different age groups, race, and state to the corresponding incarceration rates among slightly older men.
The authors find that rising levels of male incarceration have lowered the likelihood that women marry and have caused a shift in the gains from marriage away from women. They also find that women have increased their schooling and labor supply. Building on the present essay, Kamdaralso using the Census, argues that teen fertility is ificantly negatively related to the incarceration rates of males likely to father the babies of teen mothers and unrelated to the incarceration rates of males unlikely to father those babies.
First, I use annual—as opposed to decennial—waves from a different data set, with a different measure for incarceration. This enables me to flexibly link male incarceration rates with individual female observations 5 and to better pinpoint which states and subperiods are driving the ; second, I use a more comprehensive set of controls, in particular through using the list of welfare policy variables analyzed in Fang and Keane and through checking whether women were born before or after abortion legalization imputing state of birth with state of residence at the time of survey.
In turn, some of my depart from those found in those two other studies. This work uniquely combines different data sets to assess the impact of black male incarceration rates on black female outcomes by linking state- year- gender- and race-specific male incarceration rates with individual female observations. Prison statistics by race were first released in Coincidentally, roughly corresponds to the beginning of the giant wave of incarceration that has been sweeping the Single Blk Male States since.
With a few exceptions, these data give the s of prisoners by gender and race for every year in every state.
To Single Blk Male the raw figures of inmates into percentages of the adult population in each Single Blk Male and state, I use the U. Census Estimates — provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC Wonder Web site, which gives in each state and year the of inhabitants by gender, race, and 5-year age group. Unfortunately, the BJS, which releases data by gender, race, state, and year, does not break them down by age. The main explanatory variable of interest is therefore the incarceration rate of black males adjusted for black male population, ages 20— At the aggregate level, the evolution of male incarceration rates by race over time reveals a dramatic increase in the black group, yet the pattern is monotonic and smooth, making any graphical inference problematic fig.
Male incarceration, adjusted for male population, ages 20—54, by race. The weights correspond to the share of the total black or white male population ages 20—54 in each state. I use CPS data for the dependent variables and individual covariates, including indirectly CPS data for black male unemployment rates, which have been compiled and released through the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I also use different measures of state level welfare generosity collected by Fang and Keane over the same period.
Tables 1 and 2 show the summary statistics of all the variables used in the regressions. Table 1. Summary Statistics of Dependent Variables in Tables 3, 4, and 5. Note Standard deviations are given in parentheses. CPS education coding: 10th grade, 36; 11th grade, 37; 12th grade no diploma38; high school graduate diploma, GED, etc. Education minimum cutoff set at Including women with lower education has no ificant impact on the regression given the small of such observations.
Except for Delaware and Wisconsin, all states use the standard earned income tax rate when taxing this income. For the estimation of teenage fertility, the information comes from the June CPS. To that effect, I construct two indicators. The first one simply measures whether a woman is a mother. Total nonmarital teenage pregnancy rates exhibit a relative stability among white females since the mids: more precisely, an increase in the mids to early s, followed by a decrease later on.
For black females, the same movement occurs in the mids and early s, but the decline is more pronounced. Between and the U. Many hypotheses can be advanced to for this phenomenon: liberal sex education, welfare reforms, and so on. Yet one can check that it is unclear graphically alone whether male incarceration rates contributed to the decline in teenage motherhood, especially since black teen fertility started going down prior to the start of the prison population explosion.
I also look at education, labor force participation, and marriage. To summarize the patterns that characterize educational attainment of women by race, a convergence in attainment between black and white females in terms of high Single Blk Male completion is Single Blk Male, but that movement started well before the shift from the long-run incarceration trend in the late s.
Overall, female employment increased at a declining rate from the late s to the early s, after which it leveled off before picking up again in the mids. We observe a catch-up between black and white young women over the period in terms of full-time employment, in particular a general decrease for whites as well as a slight increase for blacks, especially in the s.
While it is not apparent that incarceration rates can explain the convergence, the absence of decline in employment rates among young black women is puzzling. As for the proportion of unmarried women by race and age brackets, the essential feature is a slow, continuous evolution capturing the decline in the institution of marriage, for both races and for all ages.
Yet, there is no graphical evidence to support the hypothesis that marriage and male incarceration are causally related since the growth in male incarceration is consistently higher than the growth in the proportion of never married women especially for blacks. Let us consider a linear model estimating the impact of male incarceration on any single female outcome:. Matching based on race and state is intuitive.
Further, should one consider some average local male-incarceration rate over a certain of years before the time when the individual is observed? The absence of clear answers to such measurement questions must have played a role in the relative absence of quantitative studies on this issue. The present work focuses on women in their late teens and early twenties. Further, if local incarceration plays a role in such decisions, it is likely that the most influential incarceration rate is that which shortly precedes those decisions even though some of these young women may have experienced the incarceration of their father earlier in life, which would be impossible to measure.
In this way at the very least one conservatively limits the chances of mismatch between relevant incarceration rates and outcomes of interest. In this article, I present the obtained with various plausible lags between incarceration rates and observed outcomes to capture the response of women to the recent in one case, the latest incarceration rate they have experienced.
With a one year lag, the model is written as. A potential problem is that considering the race-specific prison rate per adult population induces measurement bias if the age distribution of prisoners shifts over time. Although average time served by prison inmates has increased only modestly and stays well below 3 years, the prison population is ageing—thus the bias should work against finding ificant effects.
Note further that changes in the ratio from one year to the next are driven by the numerator given the slow evolution of demographic characteristics within any state. Like the other articles on mass imprisonment and female outcomes mentioned earlier, I assume throughout that decisions made by young women do not cause the behaviors that result in men being incarcerated, such as drug possession or violent crimes, nor do they cause the policies that influence incarceration, such as legal changes, changes in law enforcement personnel per capita, or the construction of prisons.
The possibility of reverse causality, that is, black male incarceration being partly a consequence of black female empowerment through increased schooling, employment, etc. Although I acknowledge that determining the direction of causality from aggregate trends is only tentative, at a minimum, the raw facts do not support such a hypothesis: black women make steady progress regarding educational and employment outcomes in the s at the same time as actual black male criminal behavior is declining.
In that case, young women would change their behavior over time because men are becoming less suitable as husbands, not because they are locked up. However, I now present evidence that changes in male-incarceration rates over time are not caused by changes in male behavior but rather by changes in criminal policy. The National Crime Victimization Survey shows long-term declines in victimization rates for a variety of violent crimes—although there is some cyclicality around these long-term trends.
Similarly, property crimes have gone down since the mids. For homicides, it shows increases peaking in the early Single Blk Male, a decline through the mids, and then an increase from the mids to the early s as part of the crack epidemic. Other violent crimes in the UCR show similar cyclical patterns. Both series show a strong decline in all of violent crimes starting from the early s. The UCR displays a dramatic increase of arrests for drug abuse violations starting in the early s.
For drug charges, according to the U. National Household Survey on Drug Abuse, an estimated Note that the proportion of blacks is close to that of whites 7. This is precisely the beginning of the period covered here. Similar drug offenses, notably possession—for which, again, prevalence does not increase—are prosecuted more aggressively, resulting in a higher likelihood of being brought to courts. This being said, the effect of aggregate African American male incarceration on female outcomes can in principle be decomposed into at least two parts: the removal of men from the population direct effect and the changes in behavior among those who are not arrested indirect effect.
As for the indirect effect, while the changes in behavior may include greater deterrence from criminal activity, it also implies increased male bargaining Single Blk Male, predictably leading men to engage in riskier sexual behavior Posner This is all the more plausible since incarceration has increased by many times more than the actual decrease in criminal behavior over the years. Finally, a similar selection argument applies to women, though to a far lesser extent. To illustrate the reality of the phenomenon, Swann and Sylvester find that rising black female incarceration rates have caused an increase in foster care caselo.
The increase in black female incarceration, however, is relatively small. At a minimum, a back-of-the-envelope calculation imputing to all incarcerated women outcomes that run against the found in the CPS samples—for example, assuming all unobservable incarcerated women are mothers—suggests that the presented here would not be qualitatively affected.
The identification of the causal impact of incarceration is not straightforward because of the numerous potential confounding factors associated with incarceration. It is well known that using a single cross section to tackle such a problem is inadequate.Single Blk Male
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